The Top Themes of 1998

Volume 2 Number 8 December 31, 1998

RealAudio

by Scott Tilley

In this final musing of the year, we take a look back at some of the top stories from the PC industry in 1998. In our second year of publication, the top five themes were e-commerce, Y2K and the Euro, network bandwidth, the free source code movement, and quantum computing.

In keeping with the tradition started in 1997, SIGPC closes out 1998 with a look back at the top five themes of the past year. Although 1997 was very hectic, 1998 was probably even more so. The pace of product development, the growth of the Net, and the proliferation of the PC into the lives of nearly everyone (due in large part to the plunging prices of brand-name computers) accelerated in 1998.

As with last year, SIGPC only scratched the surface of news-worthy stories in 1998. There simply isn't enough time to read about everything that's interesting in the PC world, never mind write about it! Nevertheless, a few themes did emerge:

• E-commerce
• Y2K and the Euro
• Network bandwidth
• The free source code movement
• Quantum computing

For this year's final musing, let's review the SIGPC top five themes of 1998.

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E-commerce

As shown by the meteoric rise of Internet-related stocks such as amazon.com and eBay, the Net has clearly entered the mainstream. This was very visible this past holiday season, with e-commerce playing its first significant role in retail sales. Microcash (so-called because it deals in monetary amounts of thousands of a cent, or less) has not yet made an appearance, but that didn't seem to slow down the commercialization of the Net.

For the most part, e-commerce is currently taking place between companies, rather than from company to consumer. Intel, a relative late-comer to the e-commerce party, announced it was conducting over $1B a month in online transactions! With that type of money changing hands, e-commerce has now become a significant factor for the overall economy. SIGPC didn't cover this topic in 1998, but we will be watching it very closely in 1999.

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Y2K and the Euro

As this issue of SIGPC is being created, Europe is in the final countdown to the introduction of their new common currency, the euro, on January 1, 1999. Whether or not the euro will be a success, only time will tell. Time is also playing a big role in another date-related issue: the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem.

For PC users, the primary Y2K hardware issue for 1999 is related to the system's BIOS. On some machines manufactured before 1997, the BIOS may not be Y2K compliant. The BIOS may be upgradeable using a process called "flashing," where a new version of the system software is placed on the machine's permanent memory. The BIOS patches are usually available from the PC manufacturer's Web site along with instructions for applying them. Some PC users may already have applied such patches recently while upgrading to Windows 98, an operation that often requires a BIOS upgrade (particularly for notebook computers).

Although January 1, 2000 marks the start of a new century (although not the start of a new millennium, as many people believe; that begins January 1, 2001), 1999 will likely be seen as the make or break year for many organizations struggling to update their computer systems to make them Y2K compliant. Just how successful companies and government agencies have been so far is open to debate; this was the focus of a very popular issue of SIGPC this summer. The question of reliable data on the Y2K problem and on the readiness (or lack thereof) of organizations as reported in the media remains. With the Y2K hype expected to rise in 1999, dealing with this "bitslag" problem will be a growing concern.

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Network Bandwidth

One of the limiting factors to the growth of the Net in the consumer area is the lack of high-speed access options to the home. To paraphrase an old saying, you can never be too thin, too rich, or have too much bandwidth. Although the widespread deployment of digital Net access has been slower than hoped for, more options are available at the end of 1998 than there were at the end of 1997. Nevertheless, the most widely used technique for Net access is still an analog modem running at either V.34 speeds (28.8K or 33.6K).

I have been fortunate to have had the opportunity to use three different types of Net access technologies: 56K modems, digital subscriber lines (DSL), and cable modems. My experiences with these technologies were documented in both SIGPC and my Net Effects column in SEI Interactive. These consumer-oriented high-speed connections are becoming widely available at relatively low cost.

56K modems provide a modest improvement over standard dialup modems. DSL and cable modems can provide connection speeds that match or better the traditional speeds of dedicated and expensive T-1 lines. Despite these differences, all three technologies share the potential for significant implications in areas such as distance learning and net-centric computing. However, several challenges must be met before the technology can move beyond the early-adopter stage. For example, fiddling with proxy server settings and DNS IP addresses is not really something everyone wants to have to do before they can connect to the Net every time they move their computer from the office to their home.

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The Free Source Code Movement

For many people, 1998 was the year that the Linux operating system entered the mainstream. This Unix clone comes with all its source code, making it the system of choice for many organizations that want to tailor it to their particular needs. The most popular Web server on the Net, Apache, also comes with its source code. Like Linux, Apache is available for free.

This growing movement to free source code is seen by some as a threat to the dominance of the proprietary Windows system from Microsoft. Even Netscape entered the fray early in 1998. Before it became part of AOL this Fall, Netscape gained public attention when it announced that it was giving away the source code to its Communicator software suite, which includes the popular Navigator Web browser. The mozilla.org Web site was setup as a distribution point and center for developer collaboration.

1999 may be the year that more organizations embrace giving away their source code for free. For some companies, it is just a new way to compete. For others, it is a way to turn the thousands of consumers who often act as beta testers (sometimes even paying for the "privilege" !) into beta developers --- for free.

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Quantum Computing

This is a topic we didn't cover in SIGPC this year, but it was quietly making news in other circles nevertheless. Crack open the old high school Physics textbook and turn to "Quantum Mechanics". Also bookmark the section on Einstein's "Special Theory of Relativity". Why? Because these esoteric topics may be very relevant to the everyday PC of the future.

In 1998, several research groups reported success in recreating what Einstein called "spooky actions at a distance". In essence, this is faster-than-light (FTL) communication and, if it proves to be real and not just a logical paradox, could change the way computers operate. Scientists in Switzerland were able to show that "quantum entanglement" of photons can be measured over a distance of 10 kilometers down an optical fiber --- faster than light could travel that far. What this means to the PC user is that quantum computers might be able to use this FTL mechanism as a way of performing high-speed processing and highly parallel calculations.

Amazingly, this stuff appears to be for real, not some April Fools joke. In the future, you may need to augment your degree in Computer Science with a Ph.D. in Physics!

Have a great 1999!

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