by Scott Tilley

2001 brought many exciting new developments in personal computing. The economy may have slowed down, but innovation continues apace. In our fifth year of publication, the top themes of 2001 were the DVDs, peer-to-peer computing, wireless networks, Windows XP, and the Euro.

As Y2K purists know, the new millennium actually began this year, in 2001. The lights did go out here in California, but that was due to energy policy mismanagement, not Y2K bugs. The tragic events of 9/11, coupled with the dot.com meltdown that was already in progress, have definitely slowed the economy. But innovation in the personal computer industry continues. In keeping with tradition, SIGPC closes out 2001 with a look back at the top themes of the past year.

There were many interesting developments in the world of personal computing, so many in fact that it's challenging to pick the most important ones. Nevertheless, I have selected 5 issues that I think played important roles in 2001:

1. DVDs
2. Peer-to-Peer Computing
3. Wireless Networks
4. Windows XP
5. The Euro

Early in 2002 I'll publish a companion issue to this one in SIGPC, outlining my thoughts on important issues that may emerge as top themes for the year to come. Predictions are always fun to make ... they're just hard to make correctly. ☺

DVDs

If you did any holiday shopping at a major retailer this year, you know that DVD players were the thing to purchase in 2001. I still haven't seen them gain the status of "required equipment" for PCs in the same way as CD-RW drives have, but as entertainment units for the TV room they are definitely in vogue. I think this will even increase once the industry sorts out which of 4 competing standards will emerge as the winner in the recordable DVD debate.

Readers of SIGPC know that I purchased a DVD player earlier in the year. The model I bought can also play video CDs and MP3-encoded CD-Rs. At the time (just a few months ago!), this was something of a novelty. Now most DVD machines can also play these other types of disks.

I read an interesting article about the cost of DVD players and how fast prices have fallen. They have reached the sub-$100 mark faster than any previous consumer electronics device. The DVD did in about 2 years what it took the VCR 19 years to do. Now if only the DVDs themselves would drop more in price...

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Peer-to-Peer Computing

In the last issue of SIGPC for 2000, I said the following:

Unless you've been living in a cave for the past year, you've heard of Napster. It's the peer-to-peer file sharing service that lets users find and download MP3-encoded music files from other users on the Internet. In the year-end issue of SIGPC for 1999, I selected MP3 as one of the year's top themes. Music or speech encoded using the MP3 compression algorithm retains most of its aural fidelity but takes up only a fraction of the space required of the uncompressed version.

What makes Napster so special is that it was all over the popular news, not just the trade press. It was in the courts. And it was on a great many PCs. Interest in Napster became so great that a new verb entered the common lexicon: "napstered." Saying that something was going to be napstered meant that it was going to be taken over by a fundamental new technology that would dramatically change the way things worked.

When Napster came under scrutiny by the legal system and was threatened with orders to shut down its service, many people began looking for alternate programs. They found them in applications such as Freenet, Gnutella, and mp3.com. I think the growing interest in peer-to-peer computing will give rise to some exciting new developments; it's definitely an area to watch in 2001.

Well, for once at least, I was right: peer-to-peer computing in general, and Napster in particular, was indeed an area to watch this year. But what happened is not really what I expected to happen. I didn't expect Napster to be shut down this summer, through a court order that they fought but eventually lost. I didn't expect the newer, more decentralized peer-to-peer systems like KaZaA (based in The Netherlands) to be forced to shut down this fall, also by court order. But I did expect the recording industry to deploy their own pay-per-listen online music system -- I just didn't expect it to come out so late and be so bad.

The industry's answer to Napster and KaZaA has been offerings such as PressPlay and MusicNet, both of which just went online this month. Although there are some differences, both are more of a music rental system than a digital music library system for personal use. I personally would balk at paying continuous monthly fees to listen to music.

The real kicker for me is the limited release of so-called copy-protected CDs. These CDs are sold in regular stores but are encoded so that making digital copies ("ripping" them) is very difficult for the average user. I'm amazed that the industry keeps trying the copy-protection method, since its never worked for anything else in the past. Think back to early computer games and crippled VCR players. The worst thing is that some of these new CDs fail to play properly in regular stereo systems.

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Wireless Networks

This time last year I also said the following:

I think that next year will see an increase in wireless technologies for home networking. Wireless networks have the obvious advantage of avoiding the clutter of wires and cables that every PC user knows only too well. At the moment, wireless networks suffer from slower speeds than their wired equivalents. But this is changing rapidly. I now use a wireless Ethernet PC Card that provides 11 Mbps roaming access. The reduced speed is more than offset by the convenience of moving around and staying connected without a tether.

It seems I was correct that home networks would be popular in 2001. But I didn't foresee just how fast the adoption of wireless networks would be. Wireless networks have been deployed at home and in small businesses at an astounding rate, especially considering how insecure they can be. One of the main reasons for their penetration is the ease with which they can now be setup. It truly is plug-and-play to get a house-wide network running, assuming you have a broadband connection, a wireless router, and a wireless Ethernet card.

And what about Bluetooth, the wireless "personal area network" that promised much since 2000 and delivered little? Only in the last few months have a few vendors bundled Bluetooth adapters with their notebook computers. However, I think people are more interested in using their PC via a wireless connection from their easy chair than getting rid of a cable between their computer and their printer. Bluetooth may become more popular in non-PC devices, such as mobile phones. However, the range and speed of this wireless interface will both have to increase, otherwise wireless Ethernet will take over everything.

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Windows XP

Speaking of taking over everything. Microsoft was much in the news in 2001. Besides battling the Justice Department and avoiding a forced breakup of their company, Microsoft launched Windows XP in October. They billed it as their biggest event since the release of Windows 95, and I agree: this time, Microsoft got it right.

I've been using Windows XP Professional for about 2 months now, and in my opinion it is far and away the best release of Windows yet. In fact, I think it is probably the best operating system available for the average user for any computing platform.

I'll have more to say on Windows XP early in 2002, when I discuss my Windows XP installation and operation experiences in an article to be published as part of Volume 6 of SIGPC.

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The Euro

Although I didn't cover it as a specific issue in 2001, the introduction of the Euro, the new common currency for 12 European nations at midnight tonight, has to rank as one of the most important IT events of the year. Think of the changes required to the banking, retail, and service sectors to accommodate a new currency. Even worse, the systems must operate in dual currencies for a period, before the native currency is finally retired.

For consumers, the Euro will cause some sort-term confusion, but I think the long-term gains will be worth it for them. All government agencies, even those not in the European Union, have also had to adapt to the new currency. I bet people in Argentina right now would gladly adopt the Euro, the dollar, or any other stable currency in place of their wobbly peso.

The Euro process has been underway for several years now, but now its official. Welcome to the € !

Best wishes for a healthy and productive 2002!

Happy New Year!