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COMDEX 2002
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SIGPC
Vol. 6, No. 12
Dec. 12, 2002
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by Scott Tilley
I last attended COMDEX in 2000, when the dot.com
boom was in full swing and tradeshow attendance was at its peak. At this
year’s COMDEX, there were significantly less people, and the number of
companies displaying their wares had dropped to less than half. However, I
still thought the event was quite enjoyable, even though the CEO of
Key3Media (the producer of COMDEX) seemed rather downbeat. For me, the most
notable new development was the TabletPC, which made its debut at COMDEX a
few years ago, but really seems ready for prime time this year. |
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To listen to most of the trade press, COMDEX 2002
marked a new low in terms of attendance, participation, and products in its
23-year history. There is no doubt that the size of COMDEX has shrunk over the
years. There was an estimated 125,000 people at the show, with just over a 1,000
companies participating; two years ago the numbers were closer to double that on
both fronts. But even in its smaller size, COMDEX is still the biggest show
around – and a show that I continue to enjoy covering.
The company that puts on COMDEX, Key3Media Media Group, is in dire financial
straits. Whether or not it survives, merges or gets bought outright, or seeks
the bankruptcy courts for protection is unknown. The CEO of Key3Media, Frederic
Rosen, opened several of the keynote sessions. I found it a little odd how
defensive he seemed to be. I expected the head of the organization producing the
COMDEX party to be a little more upbeat; instead he started several speeches
with explanations as to why COMDEX is still important to the industry.
In contrast to the problems (real or perceived) of COMDEX and Key3Media, the
Microsoft juggernaut continues. I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say that
Microsoft owned the show this year. Come to think of it, they’ve owned the show
for the last few years – and this year was no different. Bill Gates gave the
opening keynote for COMDEX 2002, and of the new products he discussed, the
TabletPC made the biggest impression on me.
[back to the top]
Bill Gates & Microsoft
The keynote address given by Bill Gates of Microsoft was
the first of three speeches that I heard at COMDEX 2002. Bill Gates’ talk was
held in the MGM Grand Garden Arena on Sunday evening. The talk was very slick,
with multiple presenters, live demos, and what seemed to me to be a very
welcoming atmosphere emanating from the audience.
I think the most enjoyable part of the whole presentation was a tongue-in-cheek
video called “Behind the Technology”. This video was like one of VH1’s
successful “Behind the Music” documentaries. The difference was that instead of
a rock band, the subject of the video was Microsoft. The video was extremely
funny, with several well-known products (like the iMac) and people (like Warren
Buffet) being roasted. But Microsoft didn’t spare themselves from the barbs
either. I really liked the cameo appearances by people like John Scully, the
ex-CEO of Apple, commenting on a new PC design that was portable, recognized
hand writing, and so on – and obvious allusion to the ill-fated Newton and the
recently introduced TabletPC.
Photo courtesy of Key3Media
Xbox Live
Bill Gates’ talk began with an announcement of “Xbox Live”, an enhancement to
the Xbox game console that allows players to compete against one another over
the Internet. Not being a gaming person myself, I didn’t find this to be a very
big deal.
However, from a future business perspective, I think Microsoft is carving
themselves a very large slice of the online entertainment pie for themselves. As
broadband becomes more pervasive, this type of immersive environment will become
more popular – and more lucrative.
It’s also a technical marvel, both from a hardware and a software point of view.
A large server farm that Microsoft has setup in the Seattle area provides the
hardware required to serve so many thousands of simultaneous users. In fact,
Xbox Live represents a great opportunity for Microsoft to “eat their own dog
food” by testing their software at an enterprise scale.
The Digital Decade
The Xbox introduction was used as an example of what Bill Gates called the
“digital decade” of 2001-2009. In fact, he used the phrase “deeply digital”
several times. The variation on this often-used term was “personalization”.
Several large slides displayed the words “personal computer” morphing into
“personal computing”, a subtle but important difference in terms of the user
experience.
There was a very interesting summary of 2002 as seen from Microsoft’s
perspective. On the positive side were things like continuous price/performance
improvements, the rapid adoption of Wi-Fi (802.11b) wireless networking,
hardware developments such as processors and LCD displays (made even better with
ClearType), and Web services. On the negative side were things like the overall
economic climate and its impact on technology investment, the growing complexity
of computer systems, the unresolved issues related to security, privacy, and
digital rights management, and the lackluster deployment of broadband services.
Even with the current downturn in the IT industry, Microsoft continues to pour a
lot of money into its R&D operations. In 1998, Microsoft spent about $3 Billion
on R&D; this increased to $5.5 Billion in 2002. According to Bill Gates, the
biggest part of this very significant R&D expenditure is now on security and
trustworthy computing. I truly hope it is money well spent; Windows users would
certainly welcome any improvement in the platform’s reliability.
No doubt the funding needed to finance all this R&D continues to come from
Microsoft’s two cash cows: Windows and Office. The Windows XP operating system
is the fastest-adopted version of Windows in Microsoft’s history. I agree with
the point made during the presentation that increased stability (as compared
with Windows 2000) is a big factor in this.
The next version of Office (number 11 by my count) is due for release in Summer
2003. I know that there are some significant changes planned for some of the
Office components, such as Outlook (the email client). Microsoft staff
demonstrated two new additions to the Office family during the keynote. The
first product, Xdocs, leverages XML and SharePoint to make collaboration and
file exchange easier. The next version of Office makes XML a native format for
all Office programs. This means bread-and-butter applications like Word will be
able to edit XML documents just like regular DOC files. I liked the preview of
managing XML DTDs as Word templates (and vice versa). The second product,
OneNote, integrates text, graphics, images, and now ink into a single
application for taking free-form notes in Office. I think OneNote will really
come to the fore when used in conjunction with a pen-based computer such as the
TabletPC.
The TabletPC
I have relied nearly exclusively on a notebook computer since 1996. I still
occasionally use a desktop PC or an iMac for special-purpose tasks, but for the
most part I prefer to take my computer wherever I go. However, I don’t use a PDA
for recording notes and appointments; for that I still rely on my paper
notebooks that I also carry with me wherever I go. The TabletPC has the
potential to change all that.
The TabletPC is basically a fully-functional notebook computer with the
additional capability that you can write on its screen, much like you’d write on
a piece of paper. There is a special electronic stylus that is used to draw on
the screen face. Depending on the hardware model, the screen may rotate, detach,
or swivel to accommodate the user’s writing. Of the several models I saw at
COMDEX 2002, I’d have to say that H-P’s Compaq Tablet PC TC 1000 was the most
impressive.
Irrespective of the hardware model, all TabletPC’s run Microsoft’s Windows XP
Tablet PC Edition. This version of the Windows operating system has special
software included for recognizing handwriting, and for letting the user interact
with the system using the pen. The Tablet PC edition of Windows XP won PC
Magazine’s “Best of COMDEX” award.
Microsoft provides a free download that augments Office to function with the pen
and ink software. However, the functionality provided by this initial release
seems somewhat rudimentary. I think that when the next version of Office ships,
there will be much more emphasis placed on providing tighter integration between
the TabletPC, the ink software, and the Office suite.
Related in spirit to the TabletPC is a device called the “Smart Display”, which
was also demonstrated during the presentation. The Smart Display is basically
just the LCD from a notebook computer, detached from the notebook itself, and
augmented with a wireless connection back to the notebook. Think of the Smart
Display as analogous to a wireless keyboard: the functionality is the same; just
the wires have been removed. For the display, it means you can browse the Web,
process email, and so on from the comfort of your chair, while your notebook PC
remains docked and connected in your office. Personally, I don’t know whether
the Smart Display devices will really catch on.
Web Services
In the past year there has been a lot of attention focused on Web services, the
boring but essential software plumbing needed to power new developments such as
IBM’s “e-business on-demand computing” initiative. Web services were still
present at COMDEX, but their impact was muted. Perhaps this is because they are
less flashy and more functional, and the initial excitement with their
introduction has now given way to business realism. The most noticeable
exception was Microsoft, who demonstrated the integration of new functionality
into Word to link the user to Kinko’s printing facilities via Web services. This
demo, and the overall theme of Web services at COMDEX 2002, will be discussed in
another SIGPC article.
SPOT
The last thing shown during the keynote was “SPOT” (Smart Personal Object
Technology). I found this to be the weakest part of the presentation. A
representative from Microsoft Research demonstrated new technology that embedded
rudimentary intelligence in everyday devices, like a watch or a clock radio. The
stated focus was to make existing devices better. I certainly support the goal,
but there is a long way to go before this becomes commonplace.
While watching the SPOT demo, it struck me how Microsoft was beginning to make
baby steps into the hardware arena. They have sold mice and a few other computer
peripherals for a while, and of course they now sell the Xbox, but it seems that
more recently they are making their presence felt in the hardware area a little
more. For example, they now sell components for wireless home networking. It may
be that for SPOT to succeed they will have to convince manufacturers to embed
even more Microsoft code into their products – or they’ll have to make the
devices themselves for SPOT to fully realize its potential. Perhaps they can
rely on their long-time partner, H-P, to help them out.
[back to the top]
Carly Fiorina & H-P
The other two keynotes were held on Monday, in the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Carly Fiorina, the head of H-P, gave the first keynote of the day. She’s flying
solo now at H-P, since Michael Capellas has left to become the new CEO of
embattled WorldCom. In contrast to Bill Gates’ relaxed and semi-conversational
style, Carly Fiorina’s talk was stiff and overly rehearsed. She read from a
teleprompter and rarely strayed from the words. In fact, the only time I saw her
genuinely smile was when the microphone went temporarily dead. The rest of the
time she just looked like a very tired news anchor.
The room where the talk was given was large (both long and wide), pitch black,
and sterile. The arena setting for Bill Gates talk lent the presentation more of
a group feeling. Here, I just felt like one scribe among many (which I was).
However, the room was full to capacity; everyone was very interested in hearing
what H-P had to say. Sadly, there’s not much news to report.
Most of the talk was corporate statistics, the type found in year-end disclosure
statements – and equally exciting. There is no doubt that “the new H-P” is a
company to be reckoned with; after all, they market themselves as the “#1
partner of Intel and of Microsoft”. Moreover, they are a considerable force just
by themselves: they have 140,000 employees, operate all over the world, and
spend nearly $4 Billion a year on R&D.
But perhaps this scale is why they seem unfocused. The breadth of H-P’s product
line, coming as it does in large part through acquisitions and mergers over the
years (e.g., Digital, Tandem, Compaq), may in fact be more of a burden than an
asset at the moment. However, the takeover of Compaq is just six months old, so
maybe there’s still time to sort things out for them.
Large parts of the presentation focused on describing how H-P is active in many
technical areas in many places around the world, from helping Dreamworks with
animated movies to helping NASA with the space shuttle. But it all came across
rather flat. For most of the hour I felt like Carly Fiorina was trying to
convince the audience that H-P mattered a lot in their lives. Such a defensive
posture seemed rather odd in a COMDEX keynote.
Photo courtesy of Key3Media
[back to the top]
Scott McNealy & Sun Microsystems
The third and final keynote that I attended was by Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun
Microsystems. His talk was the most informal: he was dressed in his trademark
sweatshirt, old jeans, and sneakers; he used a stack of 3” x 5” note cards to
structure his presentation; and he made constant jokes with the audience.
However, at times I felt that some of his banter was just too informal for a
keynote presentation. I also felt that many of his comments focused too much on
the negatives of other companies (in his opinion) and less of the positives of
his own company.
If there was one thing in common between Carly Fiorina’s talk about H-P and
Scott McNealy’s talk about Sun, it was a lack of focus. Is Sun a hardware
company? A software company? A services and consulting company? Well, that
depends on what part of the speech you are currently listening too. Frankly, I
think Sun is in more trouble than it cares to admit. For its hardware business,
it’s being squeezed on the top from IBM and H-P, and on the bottom from the
likes of Dell and H-P/Compaq. Moreover, the slow pace of broadband deployment
has stymied the adoption of network computing, which is very unfortunate for
Sun, since it forms such a central role in its business plan.
For its software business, it’s competing against IBM, Microsoft, and the free
Linux operating system. There was a lot of talk about using Star Office 6.0 as a
replacement for Microsoft Office, but I can’t really see it happening at most
corporations. I’ve tried Star Office, several times and on different platforms
in fact, and found it to be a very poor replacement for Microsoft Office. Even
the low price (free, if you go for the openoffice.org version) is not a
sufficient enticement to make me switch from a product that I’ve come to rely
upon and which I quite like (for the most part). I doubt many companies would be
willing to put up with the hassle of file incompatibilities and the resulting
lost productivity just to save some money on licensing fees.
As a services and consulting company, Sun doesn’t have anywhere near the clout
that the big players like IBM, H-P, or EDS have. Out of these considerable
challenges on three fronts, I’d have to say that Sun’s continuing reliance on
high-cost servers and the Solaris operating system as a primary revenue stream
are their greatest weaknesses.
Scott McNealy characterized Sun’s evolution since its founding in 1982 as three
distinct stages: in the 1980s it focused on workstations; in the 1990s it
focused on servers; now in the 2000s it’s focusing on reducing complexity.
Obviously this is a less tangible focus than in the past, which may make it
difficult for customers to really understand the value that Sun provides.
McNealy himself admitted as much, when he said Sun’s corporate strategy was
“hard to articulate.”
A more straightforward message was Sun’s continuing commitment to network
computing. This came through loud and clear during a press briefing given by
Scott McNealy later in the day, where the “N1” initiative was emphasized. But
there was very little else new that Sun had to say. Even the demo of the Java
smart card being used with the Sunray network computing appliance seemed dated,
since a similar demo was given at COMDEX a few years ago.
Photo courtesy of Key3Media
[back to the top]
Interesting Products & Themes
It’s true that there were less companies and less new “must have” products
introduced at COMDEX this year. Personally I think many of the more interesting
products are now saved for January at the Consumer Electronics show.
Nevertheless, there were several interesting products and themes that emerged
from COMDEX 2002.
Recordable DVD
The most prominent consumer-electronics product at the show was recordable DVD.
This includes the hardware, the software, and the media. As I said in the first
SIGPC issue of the year (www.sigpc.net/v6/n1), recordable DVD is becoming
increasingly popular. Creating a DVD is still not quite as simple as burning a
CD-R, and the hardware still has significant room for improvement (e.g., in
terms of speed to write a full disc), but at least creating a DVD full of photos
from the family album is now within reach of the average computer user.
Related to recordable DVD is the growing interest in person video recorders (PVR),
such as Tivo and ReplayTV. These machines let users record television shows in
digital format, skipping commercials and avoiding the confusion usually
associated with recording shows with a VCR. I haven’t tried one myself yet, but
I hope to do so in 2003.
A new wrinkle in the PVR fabric is equivalent functionality provided by a
combination hardware/software solution on the PC. Microsoft is moving into this
area as well, with the Media Center PC. There is clearly going to be a lot of
interest in this area next year.
USB 2.0
USB 2.0 finally seems to becoming more common. Many PC manufacturers now privide
USB 2.0 ports on their notebooks, in place of the much slower USB 1.1
connections. I think USB 2.0 has the potential to surpass FireWire (aka IEEE
1394 and Sony i.Link) due to consumer familiarity with USB 1.1. FireWire still
is technically superior to USB 2.0, but technical prowess is not all that is
needed to compete in the marketplace.
Wi-Fi
Wireless networks were everywhere at COMDEX (pardon the pun). Home networking
has definitely come of age, and as broadband continues its push into suburbia,
wireless networks will become as commonplace as modem connections were a few
years ago. The whole 802.11x (Wi-Fi) phenomenon must be scaring the
telecommunications companies who invested literally billions of dollars in 3G
technologies.
PDA
I didn’t find much new in the PDA arena. Palm showed their new Tungsten device,
which runs Palm OS 5. It is a definite improvement over their previous product
line, especially the color models that came out earlier this year, but I’m not
sure it will be enough to stave off the PocketPC. I think the best Palm OS-based
PDA is now from Sony, but I’d say it is on par with a PocketPC, not markedly
superior – except for its very high-resolution screen
Linux
Interest in Linux and open source products continues to grow. There was even a
co-located Linux conference that tried to attract COMDEX attendees. But until
the quality of the final result (from the user experience) is at least as good
as commercial offerings, I personally couldn’t see myself giving up the
functionality of either Windows or the Mac. I don’t mind paying a reasonable
price when I consider the cost to be an acceptable exchange for functionality
and resultant benefits. As I said above, StarOffice is the best example of this
at the moment.
[back to the top]
Final Comments
Unlike many other reviews I’ve read about COMDEX 2002, I enjoyed the show. It
was smaller and quieter than in previous years, but it’s still the biggest IT
show in North America. I’ll be back for 2003.
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