The Top Themes of 2003
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SIGPC
Vol. 7, No. 10
Dec. 31, 2003
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by Scott Tilley
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Computing technology continues to pervade our daily
lives. This past year saw the introduction of fast new machines, sleek new
operating systems, and upgrades to numerous applications. However, the most
exciting developments were more general and more far-reaching. The top
themes for 2003 were digital music sales; worms, viruses, and spam; and VoIP.
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The year 2003 saw the launch of iTunes and the re-launch of Napster, both
welcome events to music lovers everywhere. Unfortunately, 2003 also saw the
proliferation of "malware" such as worms, viruses, and spam -- so much so that
computer security in general entered the mainstream media on a daily basis. One
technology that is in the early adopter stage, but which has the potential to
truly revolutionize the telecommunications industry, is Voice over IP (VoIP).
In keeping with tradition, SIGPC closes out 2003 with a look back at the top
themes of the past year:
- Digital Music Sales
- Worms, Viruses, and Spam
- VoIP
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Digital Music Sales
I've been using my iPod for over a year now, and I love it. It seems I'm not
alone in having this sentiment either: sales of the iPod have continued to grow.
Next year may see some true rival emerge that can challenge Apple's digital
music player, but for now it seems to have the market pretty much to itself.
However, there was more to the digital music sales phenomenon than just the
popularity of the iPod. Apple's launch of the iTunes Music Store led the
emergence of the legitimate online music services. For just $0.99, users can
easily select and download songs of their own choosing from a large (and
growing) digital library. Just as the iPod is not the only music player, the
iTunes Music Store is not the only online service. The re-launch of Napster,
Microsoft's growing interest in the market, and a somewhat confusing array of
often-incompatible offerings from long-term players such as Real and MusicMatch
contribute to a healthy (if somewhat chaotic) marketplace.
Even as digital music sales increase, the P2P (peer-to-peer) black-market
network is still very active. The number of files being swapped daily continuing
to grow, not shrink, even in the face of legal assaults from the RIAA and
others. However, $0.99 seems to be the sweet spot for many people, where the
small cost of the purchase is more than offset by the quality of the download,
the variety of the selection, and the ethics of a legal online purchase. I fully
expect this market to continue to grow in 2004.
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Worms, Viruses, and Spam
Collectively part of the annoying development known as “malware,” worms,
viruses, and spam have become the bane of modern computing. Barely a day goes by
that a new virus doesn’t make the news – and by this I mean the popular press,
not just the trade publications. It’s an unfortunate situation indeed when the
average user has to worry about geeky things like firewalls and viral signatures
when all they really want to do is look at the photos of their grandchildren
sent to them from their far-away family. I personally suffer with hundreds of
spam emails nearly every day; resolving this situation is something that I have
on my own “to do” list for 2004.
There is little doubt that Windows users suffer from malware more than users
of other platforms (e.g., Mac OS X, Linux). However, this is due in part to the
tremendous success of Windows: its market share guarantees that it will be the
biggest target of malicious code. (It’s also due in part to the inherent
insecurity of the Windows platform, and the relatively more-secure architecture
of the competing platforms mentioned.) The implication is that millions of
average users must now contend with technical difficulties that they should
never even know about.
As computing becomes more pervasive, so will this class of problem. There
seems to be an unending supply of malware writers who waste their valuable time
trying to create the latest headache for the consumer and corporate worlds. How
much better things would be if they turned their “talents” to more productive
activities.
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VoIP
Like many people, I’ve often railed against the telephone companies for their
virtual monopoly on providing phone service in one’s home. The emergence of
“Voice over Internet Protocol” (VoIP) has changed this situation – for the
better. The telephone companies might not like it too much, but consumers should
welcome the introduction of this new technology into the consumer marketplace.
VoIP works by making use of your broadband connection to route telephone
calls across the Internet, instead of the POTS (plain old telephone system)
copper wires. VoIP companies, such as Vonage, provide a modem-like device that
interfaces between your Internet connection and a regular phone. Once connected,
you dial out like you always did (although you need to include the area code in
all calls). The call quality is usually quite good (although it depends on your
available bandwidth), and the packages available are priced very aggressively.
Most VoIP companies also allow you to choose your area code, which need not
be the real area code where you live. This means you can have a Miami number
even if you live in Los Angeles. There are also “virtual numbers” available that
route calls from secondary numbers (possibly in different area codes). Since the
device is portable, you can bring it with when you travel. All calls made to
your number will work the same way, whether you are in Amsterdam or Beijing. In
these ways, VoIP points the way to a truly location-free telephone system via
pervasive computing. This may cause some grief for the regulatory bodies, but it
will be a boon to users in 2004 and beyond.
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